Determinations and The Market
Goulburn determinations have increased to 93% and VIC Murray has increased to 77%. The NSW Murray is now at 36% and Murrumbidgee at 58%. With the Murray catchments now wet, subsequent rainfall will generate inflows and likely see determinations increase further. See here and here for more information.
The October rains pulled above choke prices down from $180/ML to $125-$130/ML. Below choke prices dropped from $280/ML to approximately $190/ML. Murrumbidgee prices have also fallen from $160 to sub $100/ML. Goulburn prices have come back from $190/ML to $95/ML. Good news for irrigators but also time to be cautious.
Weather
There is currently little to no rain forecasted for the Murray catchments through the beginning of November. However, November to January is forecasted to exceed the median according to the Bureau of Meteorology Outlook. How and where the rain falls in the coming months will have a major bearing on prices in the market.
Outlook
With rice plantings well underway and cotton finalised, many irrigators have been on the front foot over the last month securing water to satisfy their requirements as prices have softened especially above the choke. Below the choke irrigators have been holding off purchasing as they see the prices reduce. At some stage irrigators will need to buy and prices below choke could strengthen. This could be exacerbated by trading constraints preventing water being moved to where it is needed.
