Whoever said it would rain again was right! The water market has reacted to the wet April with prices falling in all systems. Murray below choke and the Murrumbidgee started the month around $400/ML and is currently trading below $350’s. Above the choke prices have dropped below $300/ML from $350/ML. In the falling market buyer demand has been cautious. While confidence is high with the rainfall, irrigators have their eye on storage levels.
The wet end to April has seen good inflows into the major storages from Eildon through to Blowering. We’ve even seen a Supplementary event on the Murrumbidgee. Flows down the Kiewa River in Victoria (shared 50:50 with NSW) have been significant and will contribute to resource improvements in both states. Flows down the Darling River continue to bolster the volume in the Menindee Lakes and Water NSW are anticipating the volume will reach 630GL – at 640GL it becomes a shared resource.
While the BOM is predicting median rainfall across the MDB through May, there is a >70% chance of exceeding median rainfall from June to August. This will generate welcome inflows to the storages and should see improved seasonal determinations compared to the last few seasons. Keep an eye out for revised outlooks from water authorities in May which are likely to drive the market sentiment for the remainder of the season.